古村治彦です。

 

 2017年2月末にトランプ大統領が2018年度の米国連邦政府の予算案を発表しました。トランプが発表した国家予算案についていろいろと批判も出ています。

2018trumpbudgetplan002
 

そもそも約4兆ドル(約440兆円)の国家予算の総額のうち、組み換えや増減ができるのは、27%の約120兆円分しかありません。年金・障碍者保険・生活保護を指すソーシャル・セキュリティ(Social Security)と高齢者および障害者向け公的医療保険制度であるメディケア(Mdicare)の支払いが約260兆円でこれは義務的支出で、トランプはここには手を付けていません。また、義務的支出には国債の利子の支払いも含まれています。これだけ約73%に達しています。

2018trumpbudgetplan001
 
 

 アメリカの国家予算440兆円のうち、裁量で増減が出来る分が3割弱の約120兆円しかないということを抑えておかねばなりません。そうした部分で予算の増減をし、国の借金である国債を少しずつでも減らしていかねばなりません。ですから、どうしてもドラスティックな予算削減が行われるところが出てくるのは仕方がないところです。

 

ホワイトハウスに属するアメリカ行政管理予算局の局長ミック・マルヴァニーは、今回の予算の増減の特徴は、「国内向け予算を増やし、国外向け予算を減らす(spending less overseas and more back home)」だと述べています。

 

 アメリカ連邦政府の国債発行残高は約20兆ドル(約2200兆円)に達しています。トランプはこれを何とかしなければならない、とホワイトハウスの会議で語気を強めて訴えました。アメリカの国家予算はやはりアフガニスタン進攻やイラク進攻を行ったブッシュ政権時代にかなり増大し、それに合わせて米国債発行残高も増えていきました。日本はこのうちの5%である約1兆ドル(約110兆円)を保有しています。中国もほぼ同じ額を持っています。日中両国で米国債の約10%を保有しています。この日中両国がもし衝突ということになったら、困るのはアメリカではないですか、というのは私の主張です。

 

 話を元に戻しますが、こうした中で、国内での雇用につながるようなもの、はっきり言ってアメリカ最大の公共事業であるアメリカ軍の拡大は、雇用と教育(職業訓練も含む、アメリカ軍を名誉除隊すると、地元の警察官や消防士への応募で配慮がある)につながります。また、このブログでもご紹介しましたが、国務省とUSAIDの予算削減は、外国向け援助の削減という意味合いと、CIAがやるような後ろ暗い裏工作をこの2つの機関がやっているが、これは二重行政だということでの思い切った削減になりました。

 

 もちろん、この予算案がそのまま通ることはありません。トランプを支持した人々が多い州に不利な予算削減も行われています。例えば、農業省の地方開発センターの削減、アパラチア山脈地方の開発予算の削減は、トランプを当選された人々が住む地域に関連することですから、トランプ支持者から反対が起きるかもしれません。

 

 また、今回のオバマケア撤廃法案の撤回を見て明らかになったように、連邦議会内においては、民主党は反トランプで一枚岩の行動ができますが、共和党は内部分裂が露呈し、その一部が強硬に反対したら、トランプの政策の実行の阻害要因になることが明らかになりました。ですから、これから、連邦議会との「ディール」が重要になってきますが、これはとても複雑なことになると思います。しかし、全予算のたかだが4分の1(120兆円ほど、これも数字は大きいですが)しかいじることが出来ず、ここで国内の雇用につながるような支出をしながら、借金を少しでも減らして義務的経費を削減するということは大変なことで、トランプの任期だけでは無理な話ですし、アメリカが現状を脱却することはほぼ不可能であろうと思います。ですから、世界に大きな悪影響を出さないように、少しずつスピードを落として、世界覇権国の地位から降りていく作業をするということになります。それが、トランプの出現した意味だと思います。

 

(貼りつけはじめ)

 

Trump to Propose 10% Defense Increase in Budget Plan, Aides Say

 

by Shannon Pettypiece  and Jennifer A Dlouhy

2017227 10:15 GMT+9 2017228 5:29 GMT+9

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-27/proposed-trump-budget-said-to-boost-defense-spending-cut-epa

 

Officials say budget targets being sent to federal agencies

Social Security, Medicare left out of planned reductions

 

President Donald Trump will propose boosting defense spending by $54 billion in his first budget plan, offset by an equivalent cut from the rest of the government’s discretionary budget, according to administration officials.

 

Most federal agencies other than those involved in security will see their budgets reduced to make room for 10 percent higher spending on defense, said the officials, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity. The cuts won’t affect entitlements, including Social Security and Medicare, which make up about two-thirds of the $4 trillion federal budget. Trump has said he won’t touch either program.

 

In remarks to governors Monday at the White House, Trump called his plan a “public safety budget” focused on increasing law enforcement and keeping out terrorists. He also promised that “we’re going to start spending on infrastructure, big,” without giving details.

 

The White House is sending budget targets to federal agencies on Monday, a day before the president is set to deliver an address to a joint session of Congress in which he’s expected to outline his priorities for the nation. The administration plans to have a fuller budget outline next month, and it’s certain to come under intense criticism from Democrats and potentially some Republicans as favored government programs are slashed.

 

The budget is rooted in Trump’s campaign promises, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney told reporters on Monday.

 

We are taking his words and turning them into policies and dollars,” he said. “We will be spending less overseas and more back home.”

 

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer added that “the reductions in spending will be sensible and rational, but they will also be tough.”

 

Cuts Elsewhere

 

If Congress were to adopt Trump’s plan it would mean that everything else government spends on discretionary programs outside of national security -- including medical research, veterans care, education, national parks, food and drug regulation -- would have be cut on average by about 10 percent, though some programs might be cut more and some less. The State Department and the Environmental Protection Agency are targeted for cuts in particular.

 

The White House budget is mostly an opening bid in what could be a protracted process to set a federal budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Congress approved $543 billion for non-defense discretionary funding for fiscal 2016 and $607 billion for defense. Those totals currently are set to be reduced by 2018 under the budget sequester law, which Congress would have to amend in order to pass Trump’s spending plans. That process would give Democrats, who’ve opposed cutting domestic programs, an opening to thwart Trump’s plans.

 

Stan Collender, a federal budget expert at Qorvis MSLGROUP, said cuts of the magnitude Trump envisions wouldn’t necessarily “eviscerate” federal agencies, unless individual ones were targeted for deeper cuts. But he said the impact would be significant.

 

This is not waste, fraud and abuse -- this is like lopping off a right arm and a right leg," Collender said.

 

Meat Ax’

 

Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer of New York said Trump’s budget would take "a meat ax to programs that benefit the middle-class."

 

"A cut this steep almost certainly means cuts to agencies that protect consumers from Wall Street excess and protect clean air and water," Schumer said in a statement.

 

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain, an Arizona Republican, meanwhile argued that the military spending increase wasn’t big enough for "a world on fire."

 

The House Armed Services Committee Chairman, Mac Thornberry of Texas, also criticized the increase as insufficient.

 

We cannot make repairing and rebuilding our military conditional on fixing our budget problems or on cutting other spending,” Thornberry, a Republican, said in a statement. “We owe it to the men and women who serve and to the American people to protect our nation’s security under all circumstances.”

 

Modern Threats

 

Veronique de Rugy, a senior fellow at the Mercatus Center, a think tank funded by the conservative Koch brothers that is affiliated with George Mason University in Virginia, said Trump should first reorganize the military to meet the threats of the modern world.

 

"The defense budget is blotted with massive amounts of waste and spending that respond to the military needs of a world that doesn’t exist anymore," de Rugy said. "The new injection of funds will once again be allocated based on politics or outdated priorities rather than national security concerns."

 

The New York Times reported Sunday evening that the budget will assume economic growth of 2.4 percent--roughly in line with professional forecasters’ current projections--but below the 3 percent growth Trump has pledged. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview broadcast by Fox News that the administration thinks a combination of tax cuts and regulatory relief will lead to economic growth of 3 percent or higher. “We’re going to make sure this works,” he said in the Fox interview. “This is all about creating growth.”

 

Defense Pledge

 

Trump made boosting defense spending a central tenant of his campaign to win the White House. He has called the U.S. military, the world’s largest, “badly depleted.”

 

We’re also putting in a massive budget request for our beloved military,” Trump said in a speech Feb. 24 at the Conservative Political Action Conference. “We will be substantially upgrading all of our military, all of our military, offensive, defensive, everything, bigger and better and stronger than ever before. And hopefully, we’ll never have to use it, but nobody’s gonna mess with us, folks, nobody.”

 

Trump’s budget outline will show the president’s “commitment to fixing VA,” Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin said in an interview that aired on Fox News on Monday. Shulkin said it’s not about increased funding, but a matter of restructuring the system.

 

Foreign Aid

 

The State Department will not share in the largess. One of the agency’s deputy secretary positions, in charge of management and resources, is expected to be eliminated and its staff reassigned, people familiar with the plan said. Trump and his aides also are reviewing whether to eliminate many special envoy positions, the people said -- diplomatic staff assigned to key regions and issues, including climate change, anti-Semitism and Muslim communities.

 

State also handles a substantial chunk of U.S. foreign aid, which the administration officials said is being targeted for major cuts.

 

The EPA, meanwhile, has been a consistent target for Trump. He’s said the agency has too many regulations that burden companies and cause long delays for businesses trying to get approvals for new factories.

 

Trump’s pick for EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt, was a long-time foe of the agency as Oklahoma’s attorney general. Trump is slated to sign documents as soon as Monday compelling the EPA to begin undoing recent regulations, including the Clean Power Plan that slashes greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation and the Waters of the U.S. rule that defined which waterways are subject to pollution regulation.

 

Its clogged the bloodstream of our country,” Trump said of the agency earlier this month. “People can’t do anything, people are looking to get approvals for factories for 15 years.”

 

The EPA is a perennial target for budget cuts for some conservatives in Congress, and advisers on Trump’s transition team said its funding and staff could be slashed below its $8.3 billion budget this fiscal year. Myron Ebell, who led the Trump transition team focused on the EPA, said the agency’s workforce could be cut to a third of its current size. The agency now has about 15,000 employees nationwide.

 

Pruitt declined to say whether his agency’s resources could be sharply reduced during a question-and-answer session at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday.

 

House and Senate committees don’t have to embrace the president’s proposals, as presented. They will hold hearings to establish a congressional budget resolution laying out a framework for anticipated revenues and discretionary spending allocations for the 12 annual appropriations bills for the next fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. That budget resolution is adopted by Congress, but is not signed by the president.

 

(貼りつけ終わり)

 

(終わり)