古村治彦です。
2017年2月末にトランプ大統領が2018年度の米国連邦政府の予算案を発表しました。トランプが発表した国家予算案についていろいろと批判も出ています。
そもそも約4兆ドル(約440兆円)の国家予算の総額のうち、組み換えや増減ができるのは、27%の約120兆円分しかありません。年金・障碍者保険・生活保護を指すソーシャル・セキュリティ(Social Security)と高齢者および障害者向け公的医療保険制度であるメディケア(Mdicare)の支払いが約260兆円でこれは義務的支出で、トランプはここには手を付けていません。また、義務的支出には国債の利子の支払いも含まれています。これだけ約73%に達しています。
アメリカの国家予算440兆円のうち、裁量で増減が出来る分が3割弱の約120兆円しかないということを抑えておかねばなりません。そうした部分で予算の増減をし、国の借金である国債を少しずつでも減らしていかねばなりません。ですから、どうしてもドラスティックな予算削減が行われるところが出てくるのは仕方がないところです。
ホワイトハウスに属するアメリカ行政管理予算局の局長ミック・マルヴァニーは、今回の予算の増減の特徴は、「国内向け予算を増やし、国外向け予算を減らす(spending less overseas and more back home)」だと述べています。
アメリカ連邦政府の国債発行残高は約20兆ドル(約2200兆円)に達しています。トランプはこれを何とかしなければならない、とホワイトハウスの会議で語気を強めて訴えました。アメリカの国家予算はやはりアフガニスタン進攻やイラク進攻を行ったブッシュ政権時代にかなり増大し、それに合わせて米国債発行残高も増えていきました。日本はこのうちの5%である約1兆ドル(約110兆円)を保有しています。中国もほぼ同じ額を持っています。日中両国で米国債の約10%を保有しています。この日中両国がもし衝突ということになったら、困るのはアメリカではないですか、というのは私の主張です。
話を元に戻しますが、こうした中で、国内での雇用につながるようなもの、はっきり言ってアメリカ最大の公共事業であるアメリカ軍の拡大は、雇用と教育(職業訓練も含む、アメリカ軍を名誉除隊すると、地元の警察官や消防士への応募で配慮がある)につながります。また、このブログでもご紹介しましたが、国務省とUSAIDの予算削減は、外国向け援助の削減という意味合いと、CIAがやるような後ろ暗い裏工作をこの2つの機関がやっているが、これは二重行政だということでの思い切った削減になりました。
もちろん、この予算案がそのまま通ることはありません。トランプを支持した人々が多い州に不利な予算削減も行われています。例えば、農業省の地方開発センターの削減、アパラチア山脈地方の開発予算の削減は、トランプを当選された人々が住む地域に関連することですから、トランプ支持者から反対が起きるかもしれません。
また、今回のオバマケア撤廃法案の撤回を見て明らかになったように、連邦議会内においては、民主党は反トランプで一枚岩の行動ができますが、共和党は内部分裂が露呈し、その一部が強硬に反対したら、トランプの政策の実行の阻害要因になることが明らかになりました。ですから、これから、連邦議会との「ディール」が重要になってきますが、これはとても複雑なことになると思います。しかし、全予算のたかだが4分の1(120兆円ほど、これも数字は大きいですが)しかいじることが出来ず、ここで国内の雇用につながるような支出をしながら、借金を少しでも減らして義務的経費を削減するということは大変なことで、トランプの任期だけでは無理な話ですし、アメリカが現状を脱却することはほぼ不可能であろうと思います。ですから、世界に大きな悪影響を出さないように、少しずつスピードを落として、世界覇権国の地位から降りていく作業をするということになります。それが、トランプの出現した意味だと思います。
(貼りつけはじめ)
Trump to Propose 10% Defense Increase in
Budget Plan, Aides Say
by Shannon Pettypiece and Jennifer A Dlouhy
2017年2月27日 10:15 GMT+9 2017年2月28日 5:29 GMT+9
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-27/proposed-trump-budget-said-to-boost-defense-spending-cut-epa
・Officials say budget targets being sent
to federal agencies
・Social Security, Medicare left out of planned
reductions
President Donald Trump will propose
boosting defense spending by $54 billion in his first budget plan, offset by an
equivalent cut from the rest of the government’s discretionary budget,
according to administration officials.
Most federal agencies other than those
involved in security will see their budgets reduced to make room for 10 percent
higher spending on defense, said the officials, who briefed reporters on
condition of anonymity. The cuts won’t affect entitlements, including Social
Security and Medicare, which make up about two-thirds of the $4 trillion
federal budget. Trump has said he won’t touch either program.
In remarks to governors Monday at the White
House, Trump called his plan a “public safety budget” focused on increasing law
enforcement and keeping out terrorists. He also promised that “we’re going to
start spending on infrastructure, big,” without giving details.
The White House is sending budget targets
to federal agencies on Monday, a day before the president is set to deliver an
address to a joint session of Congress in which he’s expected to outline his
priorities for the nation. The administration plans to have a fuller budget
outline next month, and it’s certain to come under intense criticism from
Democrats and potentially some Republicans as favored government programs are
slashed.
The budget is rooted in Trump’s campaign
promises, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney told reporters
on Monday.
“We are taking his words and turning them
into policies and dollars,” he said. “We will be spending less overseas and
more back home.”
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer
added that “the reductions in spending will be sensible and rational, but they
will also be tough.”
Cuts Elsewhere
If Congress were to adopt Trump’s plan it
would mean that everything else government spends on discretionary programs
outside of national security -- including medical research, veterans care,
education, national parks, food and drug regulation -- would have be cut on
average by about 10 percent, though some programs might be cut more and some
less. The State Department and the Environmental Protection Agency are targeted
for cuts in particular.
The White House budget is mostly an opening
bid in what could be a protracted process to set a federal budget for the
upcoming fiscal year. Congress approved $543 billion for non-defense
discretionary funding for fiscal 2016 and $607 billion for defense. Those
totals currently are set to be reduced by 2018 under the budget sequester law,
which Congress would have to amend in order to pass Trump’s spending plans.
That process would give Democrats, who’ve opposed cutting domestic programs, an
opening to thwart Trump’s plans.
Stan Collender, a federal budget expert at
Qorvis MSLGROUP, said cuts of the magnitude Trump envisions wouldn’t
necessarily “eviscerate” federal agencies, unless individual ones were targeted
for deeper cuts. But he said the impact would be significant.
“This is not waste, fraud and abuse --
this is like lopping off a right arm and a right leg," Collender said.
‘Meat Ax’
Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer of
New York said Trump’s budget would take "a meat ax to programs that
benefit the middle-class."
"A cut this steep almost certainly
means cuts to agencies that protect consumers from Wall Street excess and
protect clean air and water," Schumer said in a statement.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman
John McCain, an Arizona Republican, meanwhile argued that the military spending
increase wasn’t big enough for "a world on fire."
The House Armed Services Committee
Chairman, Mac Thornberry of Texas, also criticized the increase as
insufficient.
“We cannot make repairing and rebuilding
our military conditional on fixing our budget problems or on cutting other
spending,” Thornberry, a Republican, said in a statement. “We owe it to the men
and women who serve and to the American people to protect our nation’s security
under all circumstances.”
Modern Threats
Veronique de Rugy, a senior fellow at the
Mercatus Center, a think tank funded by the conservative Koch brothers that is
affiliated with George Mason University in Virginia, said Trump should first
reorganize the military to meet the threats of the modern world.
"The defense budget is blotted with
massive amounts of waste and spending that respond to the military needs of a
world that doesn’t exist anymore," de Rugy said. "The new injection
of funds will once again be allocated based on politics or outdated priorities
rather than national security concerns."
The New York Times reported Sunday evening
that the budget will assume economic growth of 2.4 percent--roughly in line
with professional forecasters’ current projections--but below the 3 percent
growth Trump has pledged. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an
interview broadcast by Fox News that the administration thinks a combination of
tax cuts and regulatory relief will lead to economic growth of 3 percent or
higher. “We’re going to make sure this works,” he said in the Fox interview.
“This is all about creating growth.”
Defense Pledge
Trump made boosting defense spending a
central tenant of his campaign to win the White House. He has called the U.S.
military, the world’s largest, “badly depleted.”
“We’re also putting in a massive budget
request for our beloved military,” Trump said in a speech Feb. 24 at the
Conservative Political Action Conference. “We will be substantially upgrading
all of our military, all of our military, offensive, defensive, everything,
bigger and better and stronger than ever before. And hopefully, we’ll never
have to use it, but nobody’s gonna mess with us, folks, nobody.”
Trump’s budget outline will show the
president’s “commitment to fixing VA,” Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin
said in an interview that aired on Fox News on Monday. Shulkin said it’s not
about increased funding, but a matter of restructuring the system.
Foreign Aid
The State Department will not share in the
largess. One of the agency’s deputy secretary positions, in charge of management
and resources, is expected to be eliminated and its staff reassigned, people
familiar with the plan said. Trump and his aides also are reviewing whether to
eliminate many special envoy positions, the people said -- diplomatic staff
assigned to key regions and issues, including climate change, anti-Semitism and
Muslim communities.
State also handles a substantial chunk of
U.S. foreign aid, which the administration officials said is being targeted for
major cuts.
The EPA, meanwhile, has been a consistent
target for Trump. He’s said the agency has too many regulations that burden
companies and cause long delays for businesses trying to get approvals for new
factories.
Trump’s pick for EPA administrator, Scott
Pruitt, was a long-time foe of the agency as Oklahoma’s attorney general. Trump
is slated to sign documents as soon as Monday compelling the EPA to begin
undoing recent regulations, including the Clean Power Plan that slashes
greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation and the Waters of the U.S.
rule that defined which waterways are subject to pollution regulation.
“Its clogged the bloodstream of our
country,” Trump said of the agency earlier this month. “People can’t do
anything, people are looking to get approvals for factories for 15 years.”
The EPA is a perennial target for budget
cuts for some conservatives in Congress, and advisers on Trump’s transition
team said its funding and staff could be slashed below its $8.3 billion budget
this fiscal year. Myron Ebell, who led the Trump transition team focused on the
EPA, said the agency’s workforce could be cut to a third of its current size.
The agency now has about 15,000 employees nationwide.
Pruitt declined to say whether his agency’s
resources could be sharply reduced during a question-and-answer session at the
Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday.
House and Senate committees don’t have to
embrace the president’s proposals, as presented. They will hold hearings to
establish a congressional budget resolution laying out a framework for
anticipated revenues and discretionary spending allocations for the 12 annual
appropriations bills for the next fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. That budget
resolution is adopted by Congress, but is not signed by the president.
(貼りつけ終わり)
(終わり)