古村治彦です。

 

 アメリカのトランプ政権の対北朝鮮に対する対応から、アメリカ外交の二元性、ホワイトハウスと国務省が綱引きをしているのだということを書いてみたいと思います。

 

 安倍首相のアメリカ訪問中、北朝鮮はミサイルを発射しました。これに対して、トランプ大統領と安倍首相は緊急で記者会見を行い、北朝鮮のミサイル発射を非難しました(安倍首相が世界の政治の中で重要な役割を果たしているような姿に見えるように北朝鮮が演出をしてくれたように見えます)。その後、北朝鮮の故金正日氏の長男・金正男氏がマレーシアのクアラルンプール空港で毒殺されるという事件も起きました。

 

 そうした中で、トランプ大統領の北朝鮮に対する態度を示す以下のような記事が出ました。

 

(貼りつけはじめ)

 

●「トランプ氏、対北朝鮮「中国は影響力を」 核増強も表明」

 

ワシントン=峯村健司

20172240908

朝日新聞

http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASK2S254GK2SUHBI00P.html

 

トランプ米大統領は23日、ロイター通信のインタビューに応じ、北朝鮮の新型弾道ミサイル発射について「強い憤りを感じる」と非難し、日本と韓国へのミサイル防衛システムの配備を急ぐ考えを示した。また、米国は核戦力を増強していくことも表明した。

 

    特集:ドナルド・トランプ

 

 トランプ氏は、北朝鮮による核やミサイルを使った挑発行為をやめさせるには、北朝鮮と関係が深い中国の役割が重要であると指摘。「中国は北朝鮮の脅威を簡単に解決できる」と述べ、中国に影響力を行使するよう圧力をかけていく方針を明らかにした。

 

 さらに、米国の核兵器能力について「他国に劣ることはない」と強調。オバマ前政権が2010年にロシアと結んだ戦略核弾頭を1550発以下に減らす新戦略兵器削減条約(新START)について、「米国が結んだまずい協定の一つ」と批判した。

 

 トランプ氏はまた、ロシアによる地上発射型の巡航ミサイル配備について、中距離核戦力全廃条約に違反すると非難。ロシアのプーチン大統領と会談の予定はまだないとしながらも、「もし会談すればこの問題を提起する」と述べた。(ワシントン=峯村健司)

 

(貼りつけ終わり)

 

 これだけ見ると、トランプ大統領は北朝鮮に対して(と言うよりも中国に対して)、かなり強硬な姿勢を見せているということができます。しかし、一方で、北朝鮮に対しても決して門戸を閉ざしているのではないことを示す以下の記事が出来ました。

 

(貼り付けはじめ)

 

North Korean officials are preparing to come to U.S. for talks with former officials

 

By Anna Fifield February 19

Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korean-officials-are-preparing-to-come-to-us-for-talks-with-former-officials/2017/02/19/3f853c04-f6a8-11e6-9b3e-ed886f4f4825_story.html?utm_term=.a5b0e6e82dd9

 

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Preparations are underway to bring senior North Korean representatives to the United States for talks with former American officials, the first such meeting in more than five years and a sign that Pyongyang sees a potential opening with the Trump administration.

 

Arranging the talks has become a lot more complicated over the past eight days, with North Korea testing a ballistic missile and the assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half brother in Malaysia, an act that many suspect was ordered by the leader of North Korea. Malaysian police on Sunday named as suspects four North Koreans who left the country on the day of the attack. 

 

Analysts also say they highly doubt that Pyongyang, which has insisted on being recognized as a nuclear state, would be willing to moderate its position on its weapons program. 

 

If the talks do take place, they could offer a glimmer of hope for an already-hostile relationship that has only deteriorated as the Kim government works aggressively to develop a nuclear-tipped missile capable of reaching the continental United States.

 

The planning for the “Track 1.5” talks — with the U.S. side made up of the former officials who usually take part in Track 2 talks, but the North Korean side composed of government officials — is still in a preparatory stage, according to people with knowledge of the arrangements.

 

What we know about the alleged assassination of Kim Jong Nam  Play Video2:09

The older half-brother of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was killed in Malaysia in an apparent poisoning attack carried out by two female agents. (The Washington Post)

The State Department has not approved the North Koreans’ visas for the talks, which would take place in New York within the next few weeks.

 

The North Koreans have expressed an interest in engagement, but nothing’s been approved yet,” said one person familiar with the preparations, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss them.

 

Others who have been in touch with North Koreans describe an intense interest in what President Trump might do.

 

If this happens, it would be an interesting signal to the new administration,” one person said of the discussions.

 

The talks would be the clearest indication yet that Kim wants to talk with the Trump administration. “If this happens, I would take it as a very positive sign from both sides,” said another person with knowledge of the arrangements.

 

In recent years, there have been sporadic Track 1.5 talks that have taken place in Kuala Lumpur, Geneva, Berlin and Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. But these talks have not taken place in the United States since July 2011, before Kim succeeded his father in North Korea.

 

The planned talks are being organized by Donald S. Zagoria of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, who served as a consultant on Asia during the Carter administration and has organized previous rounds of such talks. Zagoria declined to comment on the preparations.

 

The talks would be run independently of the State Department, where officials have privately questioned the utility of such discussions. But if the administration issued the visas, it would be an implicit seal of approval. And if the discussions go well, they could pave the way for official talks.

 

Choe Son Hui, the director of the U.S. affairs department in North Korea’s Foreign Ministry, is likely to lead the delegation from Pyongyang. She is well known to American officials, having participated in official meetings including the six-party talks on denuclearization, as well as in other Track 1.5 talks.

 

Choe has a direct line to Kim, according to Thae Yong Ho, the North Korean deputy ambassador to London who defected to South Korea last year.

 

Since Trump was elected, there has been a notable change in North Korea’s usually bombastic rhetoric.

 

Pyongyang had been sharply critical of the Obama administration, saying its policy of “strategic patience” — waiting for North Korea to change its nuclear calculations — was “an aggressive and heinous ‘strategic suffocation’ policy” against North Korea.

 

But in its announcement of its missile launch Feb. 12, the North’s state media did not include its usual bluster about needing a deterrent against the United States and its “hostile policies.”

 

In his own statement after the launch, Trump notably did not condemn Pyongyang. The new president has, in fact, said very little about how he plans to deal with North Korea. “North Korea — we’ll take care of it folks, we’re going to take care of it all,” he said at his news conference last week, without elaborating.

 

His administration is conducting a review of North Korea policy. This provides space to broaden the options for dealing with Pyongyang and an opportunity to influence the new president, analysts say. 

 

While some expect him to take a hard-line approach, encouraged by hawkish advisers, others say that Trump, who prides himself on making deals, could be open to dialogue with the North Korean regime.

 

U.S. policy is hanging in the balance,” said Adam Cathcart, an expert on North Korea at the University of Leeds in Britain. 

 

I think the North Koreans ought to be pretty happy, because the Americans have laid off criticizing them too much and have, in fact, been making things quite easy for them,” Cathcart said. “But at some point, they are going to have to decide whether to pick up the cudgel.”

 

For those favoring an even tougher approach to North Korea, recent events have provided plenty of ammunition.

 

On Feb. 12, North Korea tested a ballistic missile for the first time since Trump was elected. The missile appeared to show significant technological advances, with upgraded power and range, and could mark another step in the push toward the capacity to hit Alaska or Washington state.

 

(貼り付け終わり)

 

 この記事は少し古いのですが、2017年2月19日付の『ワシントン・ポスト』紙に掲載されました。北朝鮮外務省のアメリカ担当部長が代表団を連れて、アメリカ訪問を行う準備をしている、というものです。アメリカ側で応対するのは、シンクタンクの幹部で、ジミー・カーター政権で、ホワイトハウスに属する国家安全保障会議、そして国務省で東アジア担当コンサルタントを務めたドナルド・S・ザゴリア(Donald S. Zagoria、88歳)です。ザゴリアは、コロンビア大学で博士号を取得した東アジア専門家で、北朝鮮問題に詳しい人物のようです。

 

 ザゴリアは現在、アメリカ外交政策全国委員会(National Committee on American Foreign Policy、NCAFP)というシンクタンクの上級副会長を務めています。NCAFPの創設者は国際関係論という学問分野でリアリズム(Realism)の泰斗と呼ばれたハンス・J・モーゲンソー(Hans Joachim Morgenthau、1904―1980年)です。ハンス・モーゲンソーの大著『国際政治(Politics Among Nations)』は、国際関係論における古典となり、授業では必ず読みます(日本ではどうかわかりません)。モーゲンソーはイデオロギーを排し、国際関係論を「学問(Science、合理的推論を使いながら、因果関係に基づく法則を発見する行為)」にまで昇華させようと奮闘した学者です。「力(Power)」と「国益(National Interest)」という概念を用いて分析を行う手法を採り、「勢力均衡(Balance of Power)」を主張した人物です。


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