古村治彦です。

 

　２０１６年５月１８日、共和党の米大統領選挙候補者（nominee、ノミニー）に決まっているドナルド・トランプが、ニクソン大統領の国家安全保障問題担当補佐官、フォード大統領の国務長官を務めたヘンリー・キッシンジャー（９２歳！）の家で会談を行ったそうです。１８日の午後３時にトランプがキッシンジャーの邸宅を訪問し、１時間にわたり、膝を突き合わせて会談したそうです。それまでは何度か電話で会話をしたそうですが、今回、トランプのたっての希望で会談が実現したということです。

 

　一つ目の記事はアメリカのテレビ局ＮＢＣのサイトにアップされたもので、トランプとキッシンジャーの会談が行われた事実を簡潔に報道している内容です。

 

　この記事で重要なのは、三段落目で、トランプが北朝鮮の金正恩朝鮮労働党最高委員長と核拡散防止のために会談することには「やぶさかではない」と発言したこと（五月一七日火曜日、ロイター通信とのインタヴューで）が取り上げられています。「このようなトップ会談が行われることになれば、アメリカの対北朝鮮政策の大きな変更を意味することになるだろう」と記事で書かれています。トランプの「奇抜な」発言（メキシコ人は強姦をする、メキシコ国境の壁を作れなどなど）は数多くありますが、なぜこの発言が行われた後にキッシンジャーと会談をしたのかということを考えねばなりません。

 

　二つ目の記事はインターネットの独立系サイトの記事です。この記事で、キッシンジャーについては、ヒラリー・クリントンの師匠（mentor、メンター）で、国際関係論におけるリアリズムの大家であって、同時にヴェトナム戦争拡大に関与した「悪者」だと書かれています。そして、現在では中国の専門家で、米中国交正常化以降、密接につながっていたことが書かれています。

 

　北朝鮮は中国にとっては複雑な存在です。朝鮮戦争で援朝義勇軍を送って以降、知野同盟関係を結んできた国ですが、東アジアの平和と安定を望む現在の中国にとって、不確定要素となる北朝鮮の存在は厄介です。潰れないために支援をしなくてはいけませんが、自分たちの言うことを聞かない厄介者という存在です。北朝鮮が周りを悩ませている（bothering、ボザリング）のは、核兵器開発を行っているからです。そして、この核兵器開発の原点は、「自国の存在（と金日成の家系）が外国、特にアメリカから攻撃されてしまう」という恐怖感と、「核兵器があれば抑止力になるし、アメリカとの交渉材料になる」という計算です。北朝鮮は激しい言葉遣いの中にも、「アメリカと交渉して、国家の生存を認めてもらって、支援も受けたい」という意思を明確に表明しています（静岡県立大学の伊豆見元[いずみはじめ]教授の著作等をご参照ください）。

 

　私は、オバマ大統領の外交姿勢と考えからすれば、キューバとイランとの関係正常化を行ったのであれば、次は北朝鮮だろうと考えています。そして、ホワイトハウスの外交担当の人事からその兆候が見られるということを文章にしました。

 

※「副島隆彦の学問道場」内「今日のぼやき・会員ページ」（「副島隆彦の学問道場」の会員の方がアクセスできるページ）

「「１５１３」　最終第４クォーターに大攻勢をかける意気込みのバラク・オバマ米大統領　古村治彦・記　２０１５年２月２４日」

⇒http://www.snsi.jp/tops/boyaki/1804

 

　トランプとバラク・オバマ大統領の外交路線はよく似ています。トランプはアイソレーショニズム（Isolationism、国内問題解決優先主義）、アメリカ・ファースト（America First、アメリカ国内のことをまず最優先に考えよう、アメリカが世界一という意味ではない）の観点から、アメリカの積極的な海外への介入に反対しています。一方、オバマ大統領は、リアリズムの観点から、やはりアメリカの海外介入には消極的です。ですから、２人が考えることは同じではないかと私は考えます。そして、今回のトランプの「金正恩と話す」発言です。

 

　ちなみに、中国中央電子台のツイッターによると、２０１６年５月１８日、中国外交部は、トランプが金正恩と話しても良いという意向を持っていることに関して、これを支持すると表明しました。（https://twitter.com/cctvnews/status/732907099919785984）

 

　こうしたことから、トランプはアメリカにおける中国の代理人であるキッシンジャーと北朝鮮問題について話したということが考えられます。トランプはキッシンジャーから中国の意向を聞き、キッシンジャーはトランプから外交政策についての考え方を聞き出し、助言を与えたものと思われます。そして、トランプから聴取したことを中国に伝えるのだろうと思われます。

 

　ヒラリーは金正恩と話すなんてことは考えないでしょう。圧力をかけ続けて、最終的には米軍の力で北朝鮮の人々を救いだしたいと思っているでしょう。しかし、そうなれば、北朝鮮と領土を接している中国にも大きな影響が出ますし、東アジアの情勢も不安定となるでしょう。だから、中国としては、「意外に話せる」トランプに好感を持っていると思われます。

 

　トランプは先週、こちらも共和党系の外交分野の大物、ジェイムズ・ベイカーと会談を持ちました。ベイカーはロナルド・レーガン大統領時代の財務長官、次のジョージ・H・W・ブッシュ大統領（父ブッシュ）政権では国務長官を務めました。ベイカーもキッシンジャーと同じくリアリズムの系統に属しています。ベイカーは、先週の木曜日に、連邦上院の委員会に証人として呼ばれました。この時に一緒だったのは、民主党系、オバマ大統領の国家安全保障問題担当補佐官だったトム・ドニロンです。ベイカーは、トランプの名前に直接言及しない形で、「NATOがない世界、より多くの国々が核兵器を持つ世界は、現在よりもより安定しない世界になるだろう」と述べました。トランプは、NATOが時代遅れの存在である、日本や韓国が自国防衛のために核兵器を持つことを容認する、と発言しています。

 

　ベイカーは議会に出席した後、トランプと会談を持ったということです。会談内容については分かっていません。ベイカーは「核拡散に対してアメリカはその防止のために努力してきた。その戦いを止めるべきではない」と議会証言の中で述べました。

 

　私は、トランプがベイカーの発言と会談でのアドヴァイスを受けて、金正恩と話しても良いという発言をして、それにキッシンジャー（と中国）が反応したと考えます。ベイカーが国務長官として仕えたジョージ・H・W・ブッシュ大統領は２期目を目指す選挙で、ビル・クリントンに敗れたために、「現職大統領なのに、人気が落ちて選挙に負けた」という負のイメージがついてしまいました。興味深いことに、バラク・オバマ大統領は、この所属政党の違う人気のない大統領であった父ブッシュの外交政策を賞賛し続けています（裏を返せば、父ブッシュを破ったクリントン政権の外交は賞賛していません）。父ブッシュの外交政策を担ったのがジェイムズ・ベイカーということになります。

 

　トランプは本選挙に向けて、ペースとイメージを変えようとしています。変な譬えかもしれませんが、暴れん坊の不良学生が態度を改めると、不良仲間からは嫌われるでしょうが、大方の人たちは好感を持ちます。トランプもそのような感じになっている、不良学生がきちんとしようとして、尊敬すべき先生たちの話を聞きに行っているという動きになっています。

 

　このしたたかさと柔軟性と頭の良さを見落としていたことを改めて反省したいと思います。

 

（記事転載貼り付けはじめ）

 

●「Trump and Kissinger Hold Foreign Policy Huddle in New York」

 

NBC News  2016/05/18

by KATY TUR and ALI VITALI

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-kissinger-hold-foreign-policy-huddle-new-york-n576336

 

Donald Trump met with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in New York on Wednesday, the latest in his efforts to strengthen his foreign policy bona fides.

 

Trump's motorcade rolled into Kissinger's home around 3 p.m. where the low-profile meeting that lasted about one hour. Trump aides say the presumptive GOP presidential nominee and 92-year-old diplomat have spoken over the phone multiple times, and Trump requested the face-to-face.

 

The gathering follows Trump telling Reuters he "would have no problem" speaking to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to prevent nuclear proliferation. Such a conversation would mark a major shift in US policy towards Pyongyang.

 

Trump met with another well-known GOP diplomat, James Baker, last week.

 

＝＝＝＝＝

 

●「Trump Turns to Clinton Mentor for Foreign Policy Advice」

 

Independent Voters News

May 18, 2016 By Andrew Gripp in Campaigns

http://ivn.us/2016/05/18/henry-kissinger-trump-clinton/

 

On Wednesday afternoon, presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump met with Henry Kissinger, the former secretary of state and national security advisor to presidents Nixon and Ford, to discuss foreign policy.

 

The meeting comes after a series of controversial interviews that Trump had on the subject of foreign policy, including with the Washington Post and The New York Times in March. In an interview with Reuters published on May 17, Trump raised eyebrows with his comments about his willingness to talk to North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un and his desire to renegotiate the terms of the Paris accord on climate change.

 

By meeting with Kissinger, Trump hopes to bolster his foreign policy credibility, which has been impugned in recent months, especially by fellow Republicans. In early March, more than 100 Republican national security experts published an open letter stating their opposition to Trump’s candidacy based on his a list of a number of objections.

 

More recently, the leader of Trump’s foreign policy committee, Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions, told ABC’s Martha Raddatz that Trump is “going to need to learn” a lot in the coming months, and former defense secretary Robert Gates criticized Trump for several specific statements Trump has made, including admiring remarks about Vladimir Putin, unclear details about how to defeat ISIS, and his suggestion that he would initiate a “trade war” with China to punish the country for unfair economic and business practices.

 

By meeting with Kissinger, Trump hopes to bolster his foreign policy credibility, which has been impugned in recent months, especially by fellow Republicans.

China was likely a discussion topic during Trump’s visit with Kissinger. Kissinger is an expert on the country: he is credited with helping open diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China under Nixon and has since written a lengthy tome about the country.

 

In many ways, Trump and Kissinger share a similar outlook on foreign affairs. Both largely subscribe to the “realist school” of international relations, which sees states as the central actors in the world. Under this view, states should advance their interests by being prudent in their use of force and limiting their commitments to international organizations and agreements that can constrain their behavior.

 

Based on his remarks in recent months, Trump appears very much to be a realist. He has criticized the U.S.’s use of force in Iraq and Libya to depose dictators, claiming such idealistic adventures in bringing democracy to the Middle East have facilitated the rise of radical Islam, especially ISIS.

 

Trump has also been critical of the U.S.’s adoption of NAFTA, crediting it with hurting America’s manufacturing base, and he has argued that the U.S. is being damaged by its outsized bankrolling of NATO, the Cold War-era security alliance that Trump has called “obsolete.”

 

At 92, Kissinger is still very much respected among foreign policy realists in both parties. Indeed, Hillary Clinton sought Kissinger’s counsel throughout her political career, especially during her tenure as secretary of state, and has referred to him as “a friend.”

 

But her friendship with Kissinger became a major point of contention between Clinton and Sanders during their PBS debate in Milwaukee in February. There, Sanders called Kissinger “one of the most destructive secretaries of state in the modern history of this country” and proudly declared, “Henry Kissinger is not my friend.”

 

Kissinger has long been criticized on the left for his political record, including his efforts to prolong and broaden the Vietnam War, overthrow foreign, democratically-elected leaders, and support despots seen as important strategic partners. Kissinger’s actions have been the subject of several books, including The Trial of Henry Kissinger by Christopher Hitchens, Kissinger’s Shadow by Greg Grandin, and The Blood Telegram by Gary Bass.

 

Among the foreign policy actions criticized by these authors relates to his role in the Vietnam War: the cynical subversion of the 1968 Paris peace negotiations to help elect Nixon as president, increased bombing in Southeast Asia, and the expansion of the conflict into Laos and Cambodia.

 

Critics also point to his support for the coup against the president of Chile, Salvador Allende, the provision of military and financial aid to Turkey in its invasions of Cyprus, and for complicity in genocides in Bangladesh and East Timor in order to appease authoritarian allies in Pakistan and Indonesia who were seen as indispensable partners in the global fight against communism.

 

It is because of Kissinger’s controversial legacy that he is described in some circles as an “elder statesman” and awarded the highest civilian honors by the Obama administration, while in others he is deemed “a war criminal” worthy of public trial.

 

At this point, it is hard to estimate what the outcome of Trump’s meeting with Kissinger, beyond a symbolic boost, will be. Is Trump merely going through the motions in an effort to ingratiate himself with the party establishment and with Washington elites, or will he further refine his foreign policy views? Stay tuned.

 

＝＝＝＝＝

 

●「Trump meets with James Baker in DC」

 

The Hill

By Ben Kamisar　 May 12, 2016, 05:42 pm

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279760-trump-meets-with-james-baker-in-dc

 

Donald Trump met with former Secretary of State James Baker during his Thursday swing through Washington as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee seeks to unite the Republican Party behind him.

 

The pair met during Trump's visit to Jones Day, the Washington law firm where many members of his legal team practice, NBC News reported.

 

The meeting came hours after Baker criticized some of Trump's key foreign policy proposals during a Thursday Senate hearing, including his call to roll back American involvement in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

 

The criticism came after prodding by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who battled with Trump during his own presidential run this cycle.

 

Rubio asked Baker to "describe a world in which NATO lost its way or perhaps disintegrated," parroting Trump's criticism.

 

"We've got a lot of problems today but you'd have a hell of a lot more if that was the case," Baker responded. "NATO has been the foundation and the base for peace and stability in Europe and on the Eurasian Continent."

 

Rubio also brought up Trump’s call to let Japan and South Korea obtain nuclear weapons, without explicitly mentioning the mogul.

 

"The more countries that acquire nuclear weapons, the more instability there is going to be in the world," Baker said.

 

"Ever since the end of World War II, America has led the fight on against the proliferation of nuclear weapons, weapons that can kill millions and millions of people. We ought not to abandon that fight." 

 

Baker's meeting with Trump came after a series of meetings with major party leaders, including Speaker Paul Ryan and House leadership, as well as Senate leadership.

 

＝＝＝＝＝

 

●「U.S. foreign policy veteran warns Trump would make world less stable」

 

Politics | Thu May 12, 2016 6:15pm EDT Related: ELECTION 2016, POLITICS

WASHINGTON | BY PATRICIA ZENGERLE

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-foreign-idUSKCN0Y32MP

 

Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump is surrounded by family members as he speaks during a campaign victory party after rival candidate Senator Ted Cruz dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination following the results of the Indiana state primary, at Trump Tower in Manhattan, New York, U.S., May 3, 2016. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump is surrounded by family members as he speaks during a campaign victory party after rival candidate Senator Ted Cruz dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination following the results of the Indiana...

 

Donald Trump's foreign policy proposals would make the world a less stable place, former Secretary of State James Baker told a U.S. Senate hearing on Thursday as the Republican presidential candidate met elsewhere with party congressional leaders.

 

Under questioning from Republican Senator Marco Rubio, a former Trump rival in the presidential race, Baker said the world "would be far less stable" with a weaker NATO or if more countries had nuclear weapons as Trump has proposed.

 

"We've a got a lot of problems today, but we'd have a hell of a lot more if that were the case," Baker told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, adding that U.S. commitments around the world "promote U.S. security."

 

Trump met with Baker on Thursday at Trump's request, said a Baker spokesman, who declined further comment.

 

The hearing, on "America's Role in the World," was called by the committee's Republican chairman, Senator Bob Corker. Corker praised a foreign policy speech Trump gave in Washington last month. Some U.S. allies worried after Trump's remarks that his invocation of an "America first" agenda is a threat to retreat from the world.

 

Without naming Trump, Rubio referred to the businessman-turned-candidate's suggestions that the United States should rethink the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and that Japan and South Korea should consider getting nuclear weapons to defend themselves.

 

"Some have suggested 'why don't you just let Japan and South Korea get their own nuclear weapons and let them defend themselves?'" Rubio asked.

 

"The more countries that acquire nuclear weapons, the more instability there is going to be in the world, in my opinion," Baker said.

 

Tom Donilon, Democratic President Barack Obama's former national security adviser, called Rubio's question an "important thought experiment," as he backed Baker's comments about the importance of NATO.

 

"It's not just a thought experiment, it's actually been proposed," Rubio said.

 

As the hearing took place, Trump was on Capitol Hill meeting with Republican congressional leaders on how to heal divisions within the party, including those between establishment figures like Baker and the insurgent candidate.

 

Baker, a Republican who was secretary of state under President George Bush and Treasury secretary under President Ronald Reagan, testified alongside Donilon.

 

Former Presidents Bush and George W. Bush do not plan to endorse Trump, or any candidate, in this year's White House race.

 

（記事転載貼り付け終わり）

 

（終わり）